In the few elections where the president's party has gained seats (19) or lost a small number of seats (19), the incumbent president has been broadly popular, with approval ratings well above 50%. The Democratic Party lost fewer seats in Obama's second midterm in 2014 when Obama was no more popular than in his first midterm four years earlier, but Democrats were defending fewer seats. Those steeper losses reflect the relatively large number of House seats held by Democrats going into those elections in addition to the president's unpopularity. Bush, had a lower rating than Biden does today, and his 38% rating in November 2006 was associated with a 30-seat loss.īiden's fellow Democrats Bill Clinton and Barack Obama lost an even larger number of House seats in 19, respectively, with slightly higher approval ratings than Biden has now. Biden currently has the same approval rating that Donald Trump did at the time of the 2018 elections, when the GOP lost 40 House seats, and similar to Ronald Reagan's 42% in October 1982, before the Republicans lost 26 seats. Given this, congressional seat losses for unpopular presidents' parties have been above average historically, averaging 37 since 1946.īiden's current 41% approval rating puts him in the lower tier of all prior presidents' job approval ratings taken just before past midterm elections. Midterm elections are widely seen as a referendum on the incumbent president, and this is justified by the high correspondence between overall job approval and seat loss for the president's party. The following sections of this report discuss how each of these four polling indicators, as well as party affiliation, has related to midterm election outcomes historically. Each of those metrics is at least 10 points lower than the historical average at the time of past midterm elections, and most are on pace to be the worst of such readings. Gallup's latest data, from a May 2-22 survey, finds 41% of Americans approving of the job President Joe Biden is doing, 18% approving of the job Congress is doing, 16% satisfied with the way things are going in the U.S., and a 32-percentage-point deficit in positive (14%) versus negative (46%) ratings of current economic conditions. On their own, those numbers would all predict a greater-than-average loss of seats for the Democratic Party this fall. Rather, as of May, Gallup finds presidential job approval and three other key national mood indicators well below the historical averages measured in past midterm election years. However, 2022 is not shaping up to be an average year. House seats in midterm elections - an average of 23 since 1974. The party of the president typically loses U.S. With less than five months to go before voters elect all members of the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate, the current Democratic congressional majority is facing an extremely unfavorable election environment. Party of unpopular presidents has lost an average of 37 House seats.
All key national mood indicators well below historical averages.President's party usually loses seats in midterm elections.
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